A climate-neutral Europe, independent of fossil fuels, is possible
Europe can become climate-neutral by 2050. Achieving this goal, however, will require a fundamental transformation of its energy supply. A systems analysis by Forschungszentrum Jülich shows how this could work: renewable electricity would become the main energy carrier, fossil-fuel use would fall sharply, and new dependencies would be managed strategically.
The study’s title, “Breaking Free from Dependencies?”, refers to the prospect of reducing Europe’s reliance on imported oil and natural gas by expanding renewable energy. The current geopolitical situation shows how urgent this is: severerestrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have driven up fossil-fuel prices significantly.
Reducing dependence on fossil fuels is therefore one of the study’s central findings. Greenhouse gas neutrality lowers the risks associated with imports, including exposure to volatile prices.
Modelling with ETHOS
The study used ETHOS (Energy Transformation Pathway Optimisation Suite). This software can model entire energy systems from a techno-economic perspective and identify the lowest-cost options under CO₂ constraints.
The researchers used ETHOS to compare three scenarios:
- Business as usual (BAU): Europe continues to rely mainly on fossil fuels, and progress already made under current climate policies is reversed. This scenario does not reflect the official climate policies of the EU or its member states.
- Net Zero 2050: Europe achieves greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050, in line with current EU climate policy.
- Net Zero 2070: The deadline for greenhouse gas neutrality is postponed by 20 years. The shift from fossil-fuel infrastructure to electrification and zero-emission fuels therefore proceeds more slowly.
The impacts of these three scenarios were analysed for the period from 2030 to 2050:
- How is the total amount of electrical energy required changing?
- How is the total capacity of power generation plants in Europe changing (due to the volatility of certain energy sources, this figure must be greater than the amount of electricity actually required)?
- What are the shares of different energy sources in the European energy mix, in terms of both electricity generation and installed capacity?
- How much must fossil fuels, uranium and ammonia be imported?
- What are the costs of these imports, and what would the situation be if oil and gas prices were to rise suddenly by 50 per cent?
Essentially, the results of the modelling show that decarbonising the energy sector, combined with the diversification of energy generation, storage options and high-performance grids, leads to more resilient and cost-effective energy systems.
And the question of whether it would be cheaper to slow down the transition by postponing the net-zero target from 2050 to 2070 is clearly answered in the negative, as whilst this would defer investments and adjustments, it would also correspondingly prolong the period of economic strain associated with the transition.
No fewer, but different dependencies
The transition significantly reduces dependence on fossil fuels and the costs of importing them: from around €240 billion per year in the BAU scenario to around €26 billion in the net-zero scenario. However, this does not mean that there will be no imports of alternative energy sources such as hydrogen or alternative fuels, or of electricity. This will depend on the financing costs of European projects and future import prices.
As regards raw materials that are not energy carriers, existing dependencies on steel, copper and cement – but particularly on critical raw materials – may well increase. This is because there is a high demand for such materials in the construction of the necessary infrastructure. According to the authors of the study, the key here is to manage these dependencies strategically so that risks can be spread.
“Our study shows that the energy transition will not simply eliminate Europe’s dependencies, but will fundamentally transform them. Europe can significantly reduce its reliance on oil and gas and better protect itself against price shocks. To achieve this, however, we must consistently expand grids, storage facilities, and renewable energy sources, while also proactively shaping new dependencies on raw materials and technologies.”
Prof. Jochen Linßen, co-author of the study and acting director of the Institute of Climate and Energy Systems – Jülich Systems Analysis at Forschungszentrum Jülich
How to square the circle
The study was presented on 1 October 2026 as part of the European symposium ‘Squaring the Circle: The Future of the EU Energy System – Net-Zero, Resilient & Competitive?’ at the NRW Regional Representation in Brussels. Experts from European institutions, the research sector and industry gathered there to discuss the political and economic implications of the findings.
“’Squaring the Circle’ is about the transformation of the European energy supply and distribution system, whereby the seemingly contradicting boundary conditions of affordability, security and resilience need to be reconciled, in a manner that is climate friendly and societally fair. The latest study by Jülich Systems Analysis explores feasible pathways, reduction of dependencies and reliable supply chains”
Prof. Pieter Jansens, member of the Board of Directors Forschungszentrum Jülich responsible for Energy, Climate & Bioeconomy since 2023